PSA 10$1,965PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$347.90PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$229.95PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$137.04$436.76 net sale vs $299.72 cost
EV rangeEV range: +22% / +46% / +71% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $206.73 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $200.00PSA 10 rate 20.7–25.1% (80% interval on 137 / 600); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 14% / 9 39% / 8 26% / ≤7 21%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 22.8% → adjusted 14.4% (Vintage, ×0.63 at $200 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 4.1% adjusted (≈ 6.4% population)
CostsRaw $200.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $80.06 (expected; 14% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.66 = $299.72Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,681.09 · PSA 9 $293.18 · PSA 8 $191.95 · ≤7 $149.08PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 14% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 119 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.6x