PSA 10$4,000PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$399.95PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$261.25PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$133.61$319.44 net sale vs $185.83 cost
EV rangeEV range: +32% / +72% / +123% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $122.85 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $101.49PSA 10 rate 3.0–6.8% (80% interval on 9 / 199); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 44% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 4.5% → adjusted 2.6% (Vintage, ×0.58 at $101 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $101.49 + shipping $5.00 + grading $67.55 (expected; 3% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.79 = $185.83Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $3,427.50 · PSA 9 $337.85 · PSA 8 $218.81 · ≤7 $72.99PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 3% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 130 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium10.0x