Identity checkMatches
✓CardDark Explorers #104/108 · Holo
✓Tracker matchKyogre EX (104 Full Art) · Dark Explorers · #104/108
✓Raw pricePulse $318.96 vs tracker $318.96 (+0%)
✓Gem rate2.2% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$3,080 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$1,761 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$899.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+93%
PSA 10$3,080PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$1,761PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$899.00PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$419.95$869.59 net sale vs $449.63 cost
EV rangeEV range: +75% / +93% / +124% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $546.51 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $318.96PSA 10 rate 1.4–3.3% (80% interval on 9 / 408); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 32% / 8 36% / ≤7 31%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.2% → adjusted 1.4% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $319 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $318.96 + shipping $5.00 + grading $108.86 (expected; 34% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $10.81 = $449.63Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,638.33 · PSA 9 $1,505.77 · PSA 8 $766.14 · ≤7 $240.97PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 34% chance of an upcharge to Express/Super Express; about 100 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.3% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 33%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate2.2%
PSA 10 pop9
Total pop408
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity76/100
LabelStrong
Confidence96/100
Supply96/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 2.2%PSA 10 pop 9/408PSA 10/9 premium 1.7xSupply constraint 96/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$318.96
Pulse price$318.96
Delta0%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Kyogre EX (104 Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context2
Support$129.00 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown36% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.