PSA 10$22,483PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$2,453PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$7,371PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$2,716$3,410 net sale vs $693.47 cost
EV rangeEV range: > 300% / > 300% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,087.86 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $362.62PSA 10 rate 2.5–3.6% (80% interval on 45 / 1493); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 33% / 8 35% / ≤7 30%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.0% → adjusted 2.0% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $363 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $362.62 + shipping $5.00 + grading $312.30 (expected; 70% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $7.55 = $693.47Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $21,094.44 · PSA 9 $2,099.65 · PSA 8 $6,362.76 · ≤7 $274.69PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 70% chance of an upcharge to Express/Premier/Premium 1; about 56 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.6% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 34%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium9.2x