PSA 10$1,432PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$804.76PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$379.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$172.14$356.97 net sale vs $184.83 cost
EV rangeEV range: +67% / +93% / +119% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $195.21 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $107.56PSA 10 rate 0.9–2.8% (80% interval on 5 / 317); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 29% / 8 37% / ≤7 32%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.6% → adjusted 0.9% (Vintage, ×0.58 at $108 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $107.56 + shipping $5.00 + grading $60.17 (expected; 1% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $6.10 = $184.83Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,223.48 · PSA 9 $685.27 · PSA 8 $319.87 · ≤7 $77.68PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 1% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 2.8% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 30%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.8x