PSA 10$2,587PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$455.96PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$560.83PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$270.37$517.21 net sale vs $246.85 cost
EV rangeEV range: +99% / +110% / +131% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $314.66 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $141.99PSA 10 rate 13.7–17.4% (80% interval on 97 / 629); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 9% / 9 41% / 8 27% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 15.4% → adjusted 9.3% (Vintage, ×0.61 at $142 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $141.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $86.96 (expected; 9% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $6.89 = $246.85Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,214.42 · PSA 9 $385.92 · PSA 8 $475.92 · ≤7 $104.27PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 9% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 122 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.7x