Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Destiny #004/105 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchDark Espeon · Neo Destiny · #004/105
✓Raw pricePulse $200.00 vs tracker $200.00 (+0%)
✓Gem rate2.0% · GemRate · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$10,000 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$709.74 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$358.17 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+54%
PSA 10$10,000PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$709.74PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$358.17PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$155.20$442.38 net sale vs $287.17 cost
EV rangeEV range: +29% / +54% / +78% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $226.79 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $200.00PSA 10 rate 1.7–2.4% (80% interval on 45 / 2257); comps ±14.0% (comp quality 72). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 27% / 8 38% / ≤7 33%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.0% → adjusted 1.3% (Vintage, ×0.63 at $200 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $200.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $66.79 (expected; 1% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.39 = $287.17Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $8,925.64 · PSA 9 $603.72 · PSA 8 $301.99 · ≤7 $149.08PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 1% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 2.4% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 28%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium14.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate2.0%
PSA 10 pop45
Total pop2,257
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity89/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply96/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 2.0%PSA 10 pop 45/2257PSA 10/9 premium 14.1xSupply constraint 96/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$200.00
Pulse price$200.00
Delta0%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Dark EspeonPSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context0
StatusNo active dashboard flag
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-07). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.