PSA 10$135.51PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$19.50PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$15.00PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$75.87$13.52 net sale vs $89.40 cost
EV rangeEV range: -90% / -85% / -79% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.65PSA 10 rate 6.9–13.8% (80% interval on 12 / 122); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 4% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 9.8% → adjusted 4.4% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $16 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 78.9% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $15.65 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.76 = $89.40Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $110.90 · PSA 9 $11.34 · PSA 8 $7.47 · ≤7 $6.69PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.9x