PSA 10$6,556PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$718.16PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$625.00PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$144.78$619.76 net sale vs $474.98 cost
EV rangeEV range: +7% / +30% / +57% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $315.91 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $375.00PSA 10 rate 3.2–4.6% (80% interval on 46 / 1198); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 37% / 8 32% / ≤7 28%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.8% → adjusted 2.5% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $375 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $375.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $73.44 (expected; 2% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $15.53 = $474.98Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $5,620.99 · PSA 9 $610.94 · PSA 8 $530.99 · ≤7 $284.25PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 2% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 130 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.6% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 38%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium9.1x