PSA 10$6,250PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$478.97PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$264.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$95.82$399.51 net sale vs $303.69 cost
EV rangeEV range: +14% / +32% / +52% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $193.78 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $210.01PSA 10 rate 2.9–5.0% (80% interval on 22 / 579); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 39% / 8 32% / ≤7 27%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.8% → adjusted 2.4% (Vintage, ×0.64 at $210 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.3% adjusted (≈ 0.5% population)
CostsRaw $210.01 + shipping $5.00 + grading $73.02 (expected; 2% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.66 = $303.69Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $5,358.51 · PSA 9 $405.66 · PSA 8 $221.17 · ≤7 $156.81PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 2% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 130 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 5.0% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 40%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium13.0x