PSA 10$82.47PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$31.62PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$25.62PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$55.63$35.67 net sale vs $91.30 cost
EV rangeEV range: -63% / -61% / -59% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $17.49PSA 10 rate 58.8–59.9% (80% interval on 8649 / 14573); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 36% / 9 44% / 8 14% / ≤7 6%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 59.3% → adjusted 35.6% (SV, ×0.60 at $17 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $17.49 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.82 = $91.30Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $65.38 · PSA 9 $21.73 · PSA 8 $16.59 · ≤7 $8.11PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.6x