Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #188/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMega Lucario ex - 188/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #188/132
✓Raw pricePulse $226.78 vs tracker $226.78 (+0%)
✓Gem rate28.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$646.65 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$197.74 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$179.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-20%
PSA 10$646.65PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$197.74PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$179.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$61.64$246.58 net sale vs $308.22 cost
EV rangeEV range: -25% / -20% / -15% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $112.36 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $226.78PSA 10 rate 27.7–28.9% (80% interval on 2489 / 8807); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 53% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 28.3% → adjusted 22.4% (Mega, ×0.79 at $227 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 38.2% adjusted (≈ 48.2% population)
CostsRaw $226.78 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $10.45 = $308.22Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $549.57 · PSA 9 $164.31 · PSA 8 $148.22 · ≤7 $148.22PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate28.3%
PSA 10 pop2,489
Total pop8,807
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity51/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply51/100
Demand85/100
Gem rate 28.3%PSA 10 pop 2489/8807PSA 10/9 premium 3.3xSupply constraint 51/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$226.78
Pulse price$226.78
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown68% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.