Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #187/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMega Gardevoir ex - 187/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #187/132
✓Raw pricePulse $170.82 vs tracker $170.94 (+0%)
✓Gem rate23.7% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$566.71 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$156.33 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$161.53 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-23%
PSA 10$566.71PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$156.33PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$161.53PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$56.69$193.53 net sale vs $250.22 cost
EV rangeEV range: -29% / -23% / -16% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $67.07 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $170.82PSA 10 rate 23.0–24.3% (80% interval on 1682 / 7110); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 18% / 9 56% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 23.7% → adjusted 18.2% (Mega, ×0.77 at $171 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 34.3% adjusted (≈ 44.6% population)
CostsRaw $170.82 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.41 = $250.22Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $480.97 · PSA 9 $128.77 · PSA 8 $133.23 · ≤7 $126.54PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate23.7%
PSA 10 pop1,682
Total pop7,110
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity56/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply58/100
Demand81/100
Gem rate 23.7%PSA 10 pop 1682/7110PSA 10/9 premium 3.6xSupply constraint 58/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$170.94
Pulse price$170.82
Delta+0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown71% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.