Identity checkMismatch
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #185/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLt. Surge's Bargain - 185/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #185/132
✕Raw pricePulse $14.05 vs tracker $19.11 (+36%)
✓Gem rate49.6% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$97.30 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$19.58 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$15.84 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-65%
PSA 10$97.30PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$19.58PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$15.84PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$57.40$30.34 net sale vs $87.74 cost
EV rangeEV range: -71% / -65% / -59% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $14.05PSA 10 rate 48.5–50.7% (80% interval on 1658 / 3342); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 30% / 9 48% / 8 15% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 49.6% → adjusted 29.8% (Mega, ×0.60 at $14 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $14.05 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.70 = $87.74Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $78.10 · PSA 9 $11.40 · PSA 8 $8.19 · ≤7 $5.45PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate49.6%
PSA 10 pop1,658
Total pop3,342
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity39/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply25/100
Demand22/100
Gem rate 49.6%PSA 10 pop 1658/3342PSA 10/9 premium 5.0xSupply constraint 25/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$19.11
Pulse price$14.05
Delta+36%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Lt. Surge's Bargain - 185/132PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Drawdown55% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.