Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #184/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLillie's Determination - 184/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #184/132
✓Raw pricePulse $51.74 vs tracker $52.29 (+1%)
✓Gem rate49.2% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$125.74 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$44.95 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$42.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-56%
PSA 10$125.74PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$44.95PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$42.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$71.12$55.68 net sale vs $126.80 cost
EV rangeEV range: -59% / -56% / -53% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $51.74PSA 10 rate 48.6–49.9% (80% interval on 4861 / 9877); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 33% / 9 45% / 8 15% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 49.2% → adjusted 33.2% (Mega, ×0.68 at $52 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $51.74 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.07 = $126.80Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $102.52 · PSA 9 $33.18 · PSA 8 $30.65 · ≤7 $30.65PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate49.2%
PSA 10 pop4,861
Total pop9,877
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity29/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply26/100
Demand31/100
Gem rate 49.2%PSA 10 pop 4861/9877PSA 10/9 premium 2.8xSupply constraint 26/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$52.29
Pulse price$51.74
Delta+1%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Lillie's Determination - 184/132PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown68% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.