Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #178/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMega Gardevoir ex - 178/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #178/132
✓Raw pricePulse $170.16 vs tracker $170.44 (+0%)
✓Gem rate62.5% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$282.26 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$142.10 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$158.48 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-29%
PSA 10$282.26PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$142.10PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$158.48PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$73.55$175.98 net sale vs $249.54 cost
EV rangeEV range: -35% / -29% / -24% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $56.71 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $170.16PSA 10 rate 62.0–63.0% (80% interval on 9480 / 15176); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 48% / 9 35% / 8 11% / ≤7 5%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 62.5% → adjusted 48.1% (Mega, ×0.77 at $170 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $170.16 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.39 = $249.54Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $236.84 · PSA 9 $116.55 · PSA 8 $130.61 · ≤7 $116.55PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate62.5%
PSA 10 pop9,480
Total pop15,176
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity23/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply14/100
Demand58/100
Gem rate 62.5%PSA 10 pop 9480/15176PSA 10/9 premium 2.0xSupply constraint 14/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$170.44
Pulse price$170.16
Delta+0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$167.53 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown47% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.