Identity checkMatches
✓CardPrize Pack Series Cards #057/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchPikachu ex - 057/191 · Prize Pack Series Cards · #057/191
✓Raw pricePulse $27.37 vs tracker $27.33 (-0%)
✓Gem rate27.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$1,000 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$91.37 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics+78%
PSA 10$1,000PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$91.37PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$79.47$181.02 net sale vs $101.54 cost
EV rangeEV range: +41% / +78% / +114% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $50.13 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $27.37PSA 10 rate 23.2–31.2% (80% interval on 54 / 200); comps ±12.0% (comp quality 76). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 17% / 9 42% / 8 26% / ≤7 16%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 27.0% → adjusted 16.9% (SW&SH, ×0.62 at $27 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 7.0% adjusted (≈ 11.3% population)
CostsRaw $27.37 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.18 = $101.54Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $852.83 · PSA 9 $73.02 · PSA 8 $15.74 · ≤7 $15.74PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 31.2% vs SW&SH typical 56.5%): PSA 9 68% → 51%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium10.9x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate27.0%
PSA 10 pop54
Total pop200
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity71/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply53/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 27.0%PSA 10 pop 54/200PSA 10/9 premium 10.9xSupply constraint 53/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$27.33
Pulse price$27.37
Delta-0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Pikachu ex - 057/191PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$24.53 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown47% off peak, Recovering
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-09-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.