Identity checkMatches
✓CardPrize Pack Series Cards #006/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLeafeon ex - 006/131 · Prize Pack Series Cards · #006/131
✓Raw pricePulse $17.50 vs tracker $17.50 (+0%)
✓Gem rate62.1% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$95.25 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$25.51 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$12.40 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-60%
PSA 10$95.25PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$25.51PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$12.40PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$54.79$36.52 net sale vs $91.31 cost
EV rangeEV range: -64% / -60% / -56% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $17.50PSA 10 rate 57.6–66.3% (80% interval on 126 / 203); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 37% / 9 43% / 8 14% / ≤7 6%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 62.1% → adjusted 37.2% (SW&SH, ×0.60 at $18 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $17.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.82 = $91.31Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $76.34 · PSA 9 $16.49 · PSA 8 $5.24 · ≤7 $5.24PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate62.1%
PSA 10 pop126
Total pop203
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity36/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply14/100
Demand22/100
Gem rate 62.1%PSA 10 pop 126/203PSA 10/9 premium 3.7xSupply constraint 14/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$17.50
Pulse price$17.50
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Leafeon ex - 006/131PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$16.86 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown45% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-09-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.