PSA 10$111.16PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$30.73PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$20.00PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$51.14$38.10 net sale vs $89.24 cost
EV rangeEV range: -61% / -57% / -53% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.50PSA 10 rate 59.5–62.4% (80% interval on 1146 / 1879); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 30% / 9 35% / 8 21% / ≤7 14%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 61.0% → adjusted 30.5% (Other, ×0.50 at $16 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 99.0% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $15.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.75 = $89.24Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $90.00 · PSA 9 $20.98 · PSA 8 $11.76 · ≤7 $6.57PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.6x