Ethan's Typhlosion (Prerelease) Holo

Miscellaneous Cards & Products - #034/182 - Other - Rare

VerifyRaw to grade

Max buy: ≥ $26.76
Current: $8.92
Expected ROI: > 300% (> 300% … > 300%)
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: Extreme EV needs comp review

Rank #83 of today's pool · score 20Top EV

Held back by: Extreme EV needs comp review.
Today's $8.92 is well under the $26.76 max buy.
Comps are thin (65), so the range is wide (> 300% … > 300%).

Extreme EV needs comp reviewHigh EV needs strong compsRaw price moved vs confirmationAging graded compsVery thin population

Checklist 0 of 6 checked

Must check: EV over 300% is usually a bad comp; confirm the PSA 10 price with recent sales (we use PSA 10 $6,500).eBay sold PSA 10
Must check: EV over 150% needs comp quality ≥ 80 and liquidity ≥ 70; confirm PSA 9 and PSA 10 sales first (we use PSA 10 $6,500, PSA 9 $893.62).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Re-check the raw price; it moved more than 15% since it was confirmed.
Check eBay sold PSA listings from the last 30 days (we use PSA 10 $6,500, PSA 9 $893.62).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Fewer than 20 graded copies; treat the gem rate as rough.
Ask for front and back photos; check centering (55/45 or better), corners and surface.

Current

$8.92

PT ok$11.50 +29%Scarcity 67Grade EV > 300%check comps

All-time high*

$22.51

All-time low*

$6.91

vs high

-60%

Not currently flagged by any dashboardView on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMatches

✓CardMiscellaneous Cards & Products #034/182 · Holo

✓Tracker matchEthan's Typhlosion (Prerelease) · Miscellaneous Cards & Products · #034/182

!Raw pricePulse $8.92 vs tracker $11.50 (+29%)

✓Gem rate50.0% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing

✓PSA 10 comp$6,500 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

✓PSA 9 comp$893.62 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

✓PSA 8 comp$601.52 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Other: none graded yet
Other grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Other grades are back.

Graded economics> 300%check comps

PSA 10$6,500PriceCharting crawler

PSA 9$893.62PriceCharting crawler

PSA 8$601.52PriceCharting crawler

Net EV$1,577$1,794 net sale vs $217.04 cost

EV rangeEV range: > 300% / > 300% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $26.76 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $8.92PSA 10 rate 16.4–83.6% (80% interval on 1 / 2); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 25% / 9 38% / 8 22% / ≤7 15%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 50.0% → adjusted 25.0% (Other, ×0.50 at $8.92 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s

CostsRaw $8.92 + shipping $5.00 + grading $194.74 (expected; 25% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.38 = $217.04Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $5,573.06 · PSA 9 $761.53 · PSA 8 $510.84 · ≤7 $1.59PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 25% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 103 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw

PSA 10/9 premium7.3x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate50.0%

PSA 10 pop1

Total pop2

SourceGemRate card search enrichment

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 22, 2026

Scarcity67/100

LabelWatch

Confidence85/100

Supply25/100

Demand100/100

Gem rate 50.0%PSA 10 pop 1/2PSA 10/9 premium 7.3xSupply constraint 25/100

Raw validationconfirmed

TCG market$11.50

Pulse price$8.92

Delta+29%

CheckedJun 22, 2026

Ethan's Typhlosion (Prerelease)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026

Signal context0

StatusNo active dashboard flag

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-06-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.