Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV10: Destined Rivals #190/182 · Holo
✓Tracker matchEthan's Typhlosion - 190/182 · SV10: Destined Rivals · #190/182
!Raw pricePulse $18.81 vs tracker $23.10 (+23%)
✓Gem rate24.1% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$227.16 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$32.40 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$12.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-56%
PSA 10$227.16PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$32.40PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$12.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$52.00$40.67 net sale vs $92.67 cost
EV rangeEV range: -59% / -56% / -53% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $18.81PSA 10 rate 23.7–24.5% (80% interval on 3931 / 16306); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 14% / 9 51% / 8 22% / ≤7 12%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 24.1% → adjusted 14.5% (SV, ×0.60 at $19 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 44.3% adjusted (≈ 73.9% population)
CostsRaw $18.81 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.87 = $92.67Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $189.56 · PSA 9 $22.41 · PSA 8 $5.33 · ≤7 $5.33PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 24.5% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 60%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium7.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate24.1%
PSA 10 pop3,931
Total pop16,306
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity56/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply58/100
Demand51/100
Gem rate 24.1%PSA 10 pop 3931/16306PSA 10/9 premium 7.0xSupply constraint 58/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$23.10
Pulse price$18.81
Delta+23%
CheckedOct 1, 2026
Ethan's Typhlosion - 190/182PSA comps refreshed Oct 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown66% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-06-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.