PSA 10$86.66PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$20.47PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$16.59PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$69.60$16.16 net sale vs $85.76 cost
EV rangeEV range: -83% / -81% / -80% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.14PSA 10 rate 17.4–18.9% (80% interval on 722 / 3979); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 11% / 9 47% / 8 27% / ≤7 16%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 18.1% → adjusted 10.9% (SV, ×0.60 at $12 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $12.14 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.63 = $85.76Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $68.97 · PSA 9 $12.17 · PSA 8 $8.84 · ≤7 $3.98PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 18.9% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 52%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.2x