Identity checkMismatch
✓CardSV09: Journey Together #187/159 · Holo
✓Tracker matchSalamence ex - 187/159 · SV09: Journey Together · #187/159
✕Raw pricePulse $43.06 vs tracker $71.50 (+66%)
✓Gem rate31.8% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$376.55 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$72.44 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$56.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-9%
PSA 10$376.55PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$72.44PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$56.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$10.98$106.82 net sale vs $117.80 cost
EV rangeEV range: -19% / -9% / 0% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $4.46 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $43.06PSA 10 rate 31.2–32.3% (80% interval on 4029 / 12681); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 21% / 9 54% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 31.8% → adjusted 21.0% (SV, ×0.66 at $43 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 25.1% adjusted (≈ 38.0% population)
CostsRaw $43.06 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.75 = $117.80Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $317.77 · PSA 9 $56.77 · PSA 8 $42.66 · ≤7 $27.86PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate31.8%
PSA 10 pop4,029
Total pop12,681
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity52/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply47/100
Demand67/100
Gem rate 31.8%PSA 10 pop 4029/12681PSA 10/9 premium 5.2xSupply constraint 47/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$71.50
Pulse price$43.06
Delta+66%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Salamence ex - 187/159PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown63% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-04-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.