PSA 10$114.17PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$30.86PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$25.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$73.57$35.42 net sale vs $108.98 cost
EV rangeEV range: -70% / -68% / -65% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $34.55PSA 10 rate 32.8–34.1% (80% interval on 3170 / 9477); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 53% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 33.4% → adjusted 21.5% (SV, ×0.64 at $35 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $34.55 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.44 = $108.98Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $92.58 · PSA 9 $21.08 · PSA 8 $16.91 · ≤7 $16.91PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.7x