PSA 10$1,568PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$323.62PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$50.17PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$255.19$451.60 net sale vs $196.41 cost
EV rangeEV range: +125% / +130% / +169% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $225.98 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $85.00PSA 10 rate 42.9–48.3% (80% interval on 255 / 559); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 26% / 9 33% / 8 22% / ≤7 19%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 45.6% → adjusted 25.8% (Vintage, ×0.56 at $85 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 1.7% adjusted (≈ 3.0% population)
CostsRaw $85.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $95.79 (expected; 26% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.62 = $196.41Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,340.50 · PSA 9 $272.34 · PSA 8 $37.66 · ≤7 $37.66PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 26% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 108 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.8x