Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #059/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchUmbreon (Master Ball Pattern) · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #059/131
!Raw pricePulse $54.11 vs tracker $66.34 (+23%)
✓Gem rate28.8% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$411.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$85.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$64.04 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-10%
PSA 10$411.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$85.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$64.04PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$13.15$116.11 net sale vs $129.26 cost
EV rangeEV range: -17% / -10% / -4% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $13.87 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $54.11PSA 10 rate 27.5–30.1% (80% interval on 578 / 2008); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 53% / 8 19% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 28.8% → adjusted 19.5% (SV, ×0.68 at $54 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 24.1% adjusted (≈ 35.5% population)
CostsRaw $54.11 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.16 = $129.26Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $347.33 · PSA 9 $67.55 · PSA 8 $49.56 · ≤7 $36.39PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 30.1% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 66%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate28.8%
PSA 10 pop578
Total pop2,008
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity57/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply51/100
Demand70/100
Gem rate 28.8%PSA 10 pop 578/2008PSA 10/9 premium 4.8xSupply constraint 51/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$66.34
Pulse price$54.11
Delta+23%
CheckedOct 1, 2026
Umbreon (Master Ball Pattern)PSA comps refreshed Oct 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown82% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.