Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #049/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchGroudon (Master Ball Pattern) · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #049/131
✓Raw pricePulse $10.65 vs tracker $10.70 (+0%)
✓Gem rate16.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$128.44 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$18.58 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$5.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-81%
PSA 10$128.44PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$18.58PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$5.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$68.57$15.64 net sale vs $84.21 cost
EV rangeEV range: -86% / -81% / -75% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $10.65PSA 10 rate 10.5–23.7% (80% interval on 8 / 50); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 10% / 9 53% / 8 24% / ≤7 13%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 16.0% → adjusted 9.6% (SV, ×0.60 at $11 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 79.1% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $10.65 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.57 = $84.21Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $104.83 · PSA 9 $10.55 · PSA 8 $0.00 · ≤7 $0.00PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 23.7% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 58%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.9x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate16.0%
PSA 10 pop8
Total pop50
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity74/100
LabelWatch
Confidence92/100
Supply71/100
Demand31/100
Gem rate 16.0%PSA 10 pop 8/50PSA 10/9 premium 6.9xSupply constraint 71/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$10.70
Pulse price$10.65
Delta+0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Groudon (Master Ball Pattern)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown62% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.