Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #040/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchSylveon (Master Ball Pattern) · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #040/131
✓Raw pricePulse $30.74 vs tracker $32.45 (+6%)
✓Gem rate25.3% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$224.02 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$33.37 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$34.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-53%
PSA 10$224.02PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$33.37PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$34.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$55.80$49.24 net sale vs $105.04 cost
EV rangeEV range: -59% / -53% / -46% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $30.74PSA 10 rate 22.5–28.4% (80% interval on 91 / 359); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 16% / 9 54% / 8 20% / ≤7 10%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 25.3% → adjusted 16.1% (SV, ×0.63 at $31 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 50.1% adjusted (≈ 79.0% population)
CostsRaw $30.74 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.31 = $105.04Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $186.86 · PSA 9 $23.24 · PSA 8 $24.21 · ≤7 $18.34PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 28.4% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 64%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate25.3%
PSA 10 pop91
Total pop359
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity64/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply56/100
Demand50/100
Gem rate 25.3%PSA 10 pop 91/359PSA 10/9 premium 6.7xSupply constraint 56/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$32.45
Pulse price$30.74
Delta+6%
CheckedOct 6, 2026
Sylveon (Master Ball Pattern)PSA comps refreshed Oct 6, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$25.02 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown66% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.