Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #033/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchEspeon (Master Ball Pattern) · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #033/131
✓Raw pricePulse $28.04 vs tracker $27.88 (-1%)
✓Gem rate23.9% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$247.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$33.34 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$18.13 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-54%
PSA 10$247.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$33.34PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$18.13PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$55.72$46.52 net sale vs $102.24 cost
EV rangeEV range: -60% / -54% / -49% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $28.04PSA 10 rate 21.4–26.6% (80% interval on 109 / 456); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 15% / 9 53% / 8 21% / ≤7 11%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 23.9% → adjusted 15.0% (SV, ×0.63 at $28 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 44.5% adjusted (≈ 71.0% population)
CostsRaw $28.04 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.21 = $102.24Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $207.01 · PSA 9 $23.21 · PSA 8 $10.16 · ≤7 $10.16PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 26.6% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 62%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium7.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate23.9%
PSA 10 pop109
Total pop456
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity65/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply58/100
Demand53/100
Gem rate 23.9%PSA 10 pop 109/456PSA 10/9 premium 7.4xSupply constraint 58/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$27.88
Pulse price$28.04
Delta-1%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Espeon (Master Ball Pattern)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$26.39 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown63% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.