PSA 10$155.93PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$20.68PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$5.75PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$57.46$28.40 net sale vs $85.86 cost
EV rangeEV range: -78% / -67% / -52% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.24PSA 10 rate 16.6–42.7% (80% interval on 5 / 18); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 17% / 9 57% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 27.8% → adjusted 16.7% (SV, ×0.60 at $12 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 64.5% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $12.24 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.63 = $85.86Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $128.42 · PSA 9 $12.35 · PSA 8 $0.00 · ≤7 $0.00PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium7.5x