Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #022/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchVaporeon (Master Ball Pattern) · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #022/131
✓Raw pricePulse $33.35 vs tracker $37.85 (+13%)
✓Gem rate17.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$470.25 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$33.01 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$19.07 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-45%
PSA 10$470.25PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$33.01PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$19.07PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$48.33$59.41 net sale vs $107.74 cost
EV rangeEV range: -52% / -45% / -37% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $33.35PSA 10 rate 16.0–18.7% (80% interval on 221 / 1277); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 11% / 9 46% / 8 27% / ≤7 16%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 17.3% → adjusted 11.1% (SV, ×0.64 at $33 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 23.8% adjusted (≈ 37.1% population)
CostsRaw $33.35 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.40 = $107.74Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $398.18 · PSA 9 $22.93 · PSA 8 $10.96 · ≤7 $10.96PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 18.7% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 52%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium14.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate17.3%
PSA 10 pop221
Total pop1,277
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity71/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply68/100
Demand75/100
Gem rate 17.3%PSA 10 pop 221/1277PSA 10/9 premium 14.2xSupply constraint 68/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$37.85
Pulse price$33.35
Delta+13%
CheckedOct 6, 2026
Vaporeon (Master Ball Pattern)PSA comps refreshed Oct 6, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown58% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.