Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #174/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchKieran - 174/131 · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #174/131
✓Raw pricePulse $17.01 vs tracker $18.79 (+10%)
✓Gem rate29.4% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$74.27 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$23.52 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$21.98 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-76%
PSA 10$74.27PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$23.52PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$21.98PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$69.18$21.63 net sale vs $90.81 cost
EV rangeEV range: -78% / -76% / -74% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $17.01PSA 10 rate 27.8–31.1% (80% interval on 370 / 1257); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 18% / 9 55% / 8 19% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 29.4% → adjusted 17.7% (SV, ×0.60 at $17 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $17.01 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.81 = $90.81Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $58.34 · PSA 9 $14.79 · PSA 8 $13.46 · ≤7 $7.74PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 31.1% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 67%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate29.4%
PSA 10 pop370
Total pop1,257
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity45/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply50/100
Demand13/100
Gem rate 29.4%PSA 10 pop 370/1257PSA 10/9 premium 3.2xSupply constraint 50/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$18.79
Pulse price$17.01
Delta+10%
CheckedOct 5, 2026
Kieran - 174/131PSA comps refreshed Oct 5, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown64% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.