Identity checkMismatch
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #170/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchAmarys - 170/131 · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #170/131
✕Raw pricePulse $11.81 vs tracker $16.04 (+36%)
✓Gem rate26.8% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$62.23 · PokemonPriceTracker · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$19.94 · PokemonPriceTracker · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-82%
PSA 10$62.23PokemonPriceTracker
PSA 9$19.94PokemonPriceTracker
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker
Net EV−$70.23$15.18 net sale vs $85.42 cost
EV rangeEV range: -87% / -82% / -77% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $11.81PSA 10 rate 24.6–29.1% (80% interval on 169 / 631); comps ±22.0% (comp quality 56). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 16% / 9 54% / 8 20% / ≤7 10%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 26.8% → adjusted 16.1% (SV, ×0.60 at $12 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $11.81 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.62 = $85.42Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $48.00 · PSA 9 $11.71 · PSA 8 $3.72 · ≤7 $3.72PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 29.1% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 65%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium3.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate26.8%
PSA 10 pop169
Total pop631
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity47/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply54/100
Demand7/100
Gem rate 26.8%PSA 10 pop 169/631PSA 10/9 premium 3.1xSupply constraint 54/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$16.04
Pulse price$11.81
Delta+36%
CheckedJun 21, 2026
Amarys - 170/131PSA comps refreshed Jun 21, 2026
Signal context1
Drawdown69% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.