Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #166/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchRaging Bolt ex · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #166/131
✓Raw pricePulse $64.37 vs tracker $64.86 (+1%)
✓Gem rate32.8% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$204.75 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$59.38 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$55.43 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-48%
PSA 10$204.75PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$59.38PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$55.43PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$66.84$73.05 net sale vs $139.89 cost
EV rangeEV range: -51% / -48% / -44% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $64.37PSA 10 rate 31.9–33.7% (80% interval on 1478 / 4508); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 23% / 9 53% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 32.8% → adjusted 22.7% (SV, ×0.69 at $64 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 75.8% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $64.37 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.53 = $139.89Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $170.32 · PSA 9 $45.56 · PSA 8 $42.17 · ≤7 $42.17PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate32.8%
PSA 10 pop1,478
Total pop4,508
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity45/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply45/100
Demand47/100
Gem rate 32.8%PSA 10 pop 1478/4508PSA 10/9 premium 3.4xSupply constraint 45/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$64.86
Pulse price$64.37
Delta+1%
CheckedOct 11, 2026
Raging Bolt exPSA comps refreshed Oct 11, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$62.03 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown58% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.