Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #161/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchUmbreon ex - 161/131 · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #161/131
!Raw pricePulse $1,270 vs tracker $1,542 (+21%)
✓Gem rate29.8% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$6,966 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$1,650 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$1,300 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics+54%
PSA 10$6,966PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$1,650PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$1,300PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$847.53$2,411 net sale vs $1,563 cost
EV rangeEV range: +31% / +54% / +82% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,406.07 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $1,270PSA 10 rate 29.4–30.3% (80% interval on 5761 / 19313); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 24% / 9 50% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 29.8% → adjusted 23.9% (SV, ×0.80 at $1,270 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 3.9% adjusted (≈ 4.9% population)
CostsRaw $1,269.69 + shipping $5.00 + grading $263.72 (expected; 74% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $18.57 = $1,562.97Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $5,972.75 · PSA 9 $1,410.67 · PSA 8 $1,110.29 · ≤7 $975.31PSA tier: Priority $79.99; 74% chance of an upcharge to Express/Premier; about 48 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 30.3% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 66%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate29.8%
PSA 10 pop5,761
Total pop19,313
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity54/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply49/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 29.8%PSA 10 pop 5761/19313PSA 10/9 premium 4.2xSupply constraint 49/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$1,542
Pulse price$1,270
Delta+21%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Umbreon ex - 161/131PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026
Signal context1
Support$948.20 floor, 2 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.