PSA 10$85.04PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$22.39PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$14.25PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$66.62$20.73 net sale vs $87.34 cost
EV rangeEV range: -80% / -76% / -73% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $13.67PSA 10 rate 26.6–29.7% (80% interval on 403 / 1433); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 17% / 9 54% / 8 19% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 28.1% → adjusted 16.9% (SV, ×0.60 at $14 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $13.67 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.68 = $87.34Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $67.58 · PSA 9 $13.82 · PSA 8 $6.83 · ≤7 $5.16PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 29.7% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 65%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.8x