Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #159/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchSandy Shocks ex - 159/131 · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #159/131
✓Raw pricePulse $23.50 vs tracker $23.50 (+0%)
✓Gem rate38.7% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$91.31 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$26.85 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$24.53 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-69%
PSA 10$91.31PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$26.85PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$24.53PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$67.47$30.06 net sale vs $97.53 cost
EV rangeEV range: -71% / -69% / -67% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $23.50PSA 10 rate 37.2–40.2% (80% interval on 691 / 1785); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 24% / 9 52% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 38.7% → adjusted 23.7% (SV, ×0.61 at $24 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $23.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.04 = $97.53Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $72.96 · PSA 9 $17.65 · PSA 8 $15.65 · ≤7 $12.75PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate38.7%
PSA 10 pop691
Total pop1,785
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity40/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply38/100
Demand20/100
Gem rate 38.7%PSA 10 pop 691/1785PSA 10/9 premium 3.4xSupply constraint 38/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$23.50
Pulse price$23.50
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Sandy Shocks ex - 159/131PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$22.92 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown63% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.