Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #158/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchIron Crown ex · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #158/131
✓Raw pricePulse $32.13 vs tracker $33.57 (+4%)
✓Gem rate40.1% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$95.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$31.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$27.11 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-68%
PSA 10$95.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$31.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$27.11PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$72.02$34.46 net sale vs $106.48 cost
EV rangeEV range: -70% / -68% / -65% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $32.13PSA 10 rate 38.9–41.4% (80% interval on 973 / 2425); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 26% / 9 51% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 40.1% → adjusted 25.6% (SV, ×0.64 at $32 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $32.13 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.36 = $106.48Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $76.13 · PSA 9 $21.20 · PSA 8 $17.87 · ≤7 $17.87PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate40.1%
PSA 10 pop973
Total pop2,425
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity37/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply36/100
Demand21/100
Gem rate 40.1%PSA 10 pop 973/2425PSA 10/9 premium 3.1xSupply constraint 36/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$33.57
Pulse price$32.13
Delta+4%
CheckedOct 1, 2026
Iron Crown exPSA comps refreshed Oct 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown66% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.