Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #154/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchIron Hands ex - 154/131 · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #154/131
✓Raw pricePulse $22.69 vs tracker $22.69 (+0%)
✓Gem rate29.5% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$131.43 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$26.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$25.08 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-66%
PSA 10$131.43PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$26.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$25.08PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$64.05$32.65 net sale vs $96.69 cost
EV rangeEV range: -69% / -66% / -64% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $22.69PSA 10 rate 28.3–30.8% (80% interval on 623 / 2110); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 18% / 9 55% / 8 19% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 29.5% → adjusted 18.0% (SV, ×0.61 at $23 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 88.3% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $22.69 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.01 = $96.69Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $107.40 · PSA 9 $16.91 · PSA 8 $16.12 · ≤7 $12.13PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 30.8% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 67%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate29.5%
PSA 10 pop623
Total pop2,110
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity53/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply50/100
Demand32/100
Gem rate 29.5%PSA 10 pop 623/2110PSA 10/9 premium 5.1xSupply constraint 50/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$22.69
Pulse price$22.69
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Iron Hands ex - 154/131PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown69% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.