Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #151/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchPalafin ex · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #151/131
✓Raw pricePulse $39.62 vs tracker $40.53 (+2%)
✓Gem rate39.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$191.29 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$45.49 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$32.55 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-45%
PSA 10$191.29PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$45.49PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$32.55PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$51.31$62.93 net sale vs $114.24 cost
EV rangeEV range: -49% / -45% / -41% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $39.62PSA 10 rate 38.0–40.0% (80% interval on 1438 / 3686); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 26% / 9 51% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 39.0% → adjusted 25.5% (SV, ×0.65 at $40 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 65.4% adjusted (≈ 100.0% population)
CostsRaw $39.62 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.63 = $114.24Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $158.77 · PSA 9 $33.64 · PSA 8 $22.54 · ≤7 $22.54PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate39.0%
PSA 10 pop1,438
Total pop3,686
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity44/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply37/100
Demand45/100
Gem rate 39.0%PSA 10 pop 1438/3686PSA 10/9 premium 4.2xSupply constraint 37/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$40.53
Pulse price$39.62
Delta+2%
CheckedOct 3, 2026
Palafin exPSA comps refreshed Oct 3, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown66% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.