Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #146/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchFlareon ex - 146/131 · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #146/131
!Raw pricePulse $169.92 vs tracker $207.97 (+22%)
✓Gem rate31.4% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$628.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$183.33 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$170.44 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-4%
PSA 10$628.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$183.33PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$170.44PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$8.98$240.31 net sale vs $249.29 cost
EV rangeEV range: -9% / -4% / +2% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $108.87 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $169.92PSA 10 rate 30.8–32.0% (80% interval on 3053 / 9723); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 24% / 9 52% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 31.4% → adjusted 24.2% (SV, ×0.77 at $170 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 26.5% adjusted (≈ 34.4% population)
CostsRaw $169.92 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.38 = $249.29Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $533.57 · PSA 9 $151.94 · PSA 8 $140.88 · ≤7 $125.85PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 32.0% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 68%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate31.4%
PSA 10 pop3,053
Total pop9,723
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity49/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply47/100
Demand84/100
Gem rate 31.4%PSA 10 pop 3053/9723PSA 10/9 premium 3.4xSupply constraint 47/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$207.97
Pulse price$169.92
Delta+22%
CheckedSep 29, 2026
Flareon ex - 146/131PSA comps refreshed Sep 29, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$155.08 floor, 3 tests
Drawdown53% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.