Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV08: Surging Sparks #251/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchNight Stretcher - 251/191 · SV08: Surging Sparks · #251/191
✓Raw pricePulse $10.06 vs tracker $10.05 (-0%)
✓Gem rate33.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$61.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$16.51 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$13.46 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-82%
PSA 10$61.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$16.51PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$13.46PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$68.16$15.44 net sale vs $83.60 cost
EV rangeEV range: -83% / -82% / -80% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $10.06PSA 10 rate 31.2–35.6% (80% interval on 250 / 750); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 54% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 33.3% → adjusted 20.0% (SV, ×0.60 at $10 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $10.06 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.55 = $83.60Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $46.95 · PSA 9 $8.77 · PSA 8 $6.16 · ≤7 $2.47PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate33.3%
PSA 10 pop250
Total pop750
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity45/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply44/100
Demand7/100
Gem rate 33.3%PSA 10 pop 250/750PSA 10/9 premium 3.7xSupply constraint 44/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$10.05
Pulse price$10.06
Delta-0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Night Stretcher - 251/191PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown76% off peak, Recovering
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-11-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.