Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV08: Surging Sparks #246/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLisia's Appeal - 246/191 · SV08: Surging Sparks · #246/191
✓Raw pricePulse $24.57 vs tracker $26.20 (+7%)
✓Gem rate29.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$64.86 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$25.26 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$21.73 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-78%
PSA 10$64.86PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$25.26PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$21.73PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$77.08$21.56 net sale vs $98.64 cost
EV rangeEV range: -80% / -78% / -77% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $24.57PSA 10 rate 28.6–30.0% (80% interval on 2055 / 7021); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 18% / 9 54% / 8 19% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 29.3% → adjusted 18.0% (SV, ×0.62 at $25 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $24.57 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.08 = $98.64Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $50.27 · PSA 9 $16.27 · PSA 8 $13.25 · ≤7 $13.25PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 30.0% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 66%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate29.3%
PSA 10 pop2,055
Total pop7,021
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity37/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply50/100
Demand9/100
Gem rate 29.3%PSA 10 pop 2055/7021PSA 10/9 premium 2.6xSupply constraint 50/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$26.20
Pulse price$24.57
Delta+7%
CheckedOct 1, 2026
Lisia's Appeal - 246/191PSA comps refreshed Oct 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown77% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-11-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.