Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV08: Surging Sparks #245/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchJasmine's Gaze - 245/191 · SV08: Surging Sparks · #245/191
✓Raw pricePulse $21.71 vs tracker $21.71 (+0%)
✓Gem rate30.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$61.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$25.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$16.66 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-79%
PSA 10$61.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$25.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$16.66PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$75.39$20.28 net sale vs $95.68 cost
EV rangeEV range: -80% / -79% / -77% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $21.71PSA 10 rate 29.4–31.2% (80% interval on 1295 / 4271); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 18% / 9 55% / 8 18% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 30.3% → adjusted 18.4% (SV, ×0.61 at $22 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $21.71 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.98 = $95.68Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $46.95 · PSA 9 $16.91 · PSA 8 $8.90 · ≤7 $8.90PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 31.2% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 67%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate30.3%
PSA 10 pop1,295
Total pop4,271
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity36/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply49/100
Demand7/100
Gem rate 30.3%PSA 10 pop 1295/4271PSA 10/9 premium 2.3xSupply constraint 49/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$21.71
Pulse price$21.71
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Jasmine's Gaze - 245/191PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$20.61 floor, 3 tests
Drawdown65% off peak, Recovering
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-11-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.