Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV08: Surging Sparks #240/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchHydreigon ex - 240/191 · SV08: Surging Sparks · #240/191
✓Raw pricePulse $33.39 vs tracker $36.01 (+8%)
✓Gem rate38.4% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$114.08 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$40.95 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$34.24 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-60%
PSA 10$114.08PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$40.95PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$34.24PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$64.27$43.51 net sale vs $107.78 cost
EV rangeEV range: -62% / -60% / -57% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $33.39PSA 10 rate 37.7–39.0% (80% interval on 3684 / 9600); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 25% / 9 51% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 38.4% → adjusted 24.6% (SV, ×0.64 at $33 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $33.39 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.40 = $107.78Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $92.51 · PSA 9 $29.74 · PSA 8 $23.99 · ≤7 $20.39PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate38.4%
PSA 10 pop3,684
Total pop9,600
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity35/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply38/100
Demand28/100
Gem rate 38.4%PSA 10 pop 3684/9600PSA 10/9 premium 2.8xSupply constraint 38/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$36.01
Pulse price$33.39
Delta+8%
CheckedOct 6, 2026
Hydreigon ex - 240/191PSA comps refreshed Oct 6, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown69% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-11-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.