Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV08: Surging Sparks #241/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchArchaludon ex - 241/191 · SV08: Surging Sparks · #241/191
✓Raw pricePulse $12.82 vs tracker $12.95 (+1%)
✓Gem rate41.8% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$55.06 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$18.79 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$14.80 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-80%
PSA 10$55.06PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$18.79PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$14.80PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$68.96$17.50 net sale vs $86.46 cost
EV rangeEV range: -81% / -80% / -78% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.82PSA 10 rate 40.3–43.3% (80% interval on 762 / 1823); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 25% / 9 51% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 41.8% → adjusted 25.1% (SV, ×0.60 at $13 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $12.82 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.65 = $86.46Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $41.85 · PSA 9 $10.73 · PSA 8 $7.30 · ≤7 $4.50PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.9x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate41.8%
PSA 10 pop762
Total pop1,823
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity34/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply34/100
Demand3/100
Gem rate 41.8%PSA 10 pop 762/1823PSA 10/9 premium 2.9xSupply constraint 34/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$12.95
Pulse price$12.82
Delta+1%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Archaludon ex - 241/191PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown60% off peak, Recovering
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-11-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.