PSA 10$193.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$66.71PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$34.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$29.17$67.12 net sale vs $96.29 cost
EV rangeEV range: -38% / -30% / -22% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $22.30PSA 10 rate 29.6–41.1% (80% interval on 39 / 111); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 21% / 9 53% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 35.1% → adjusted 21.4% (SV, ×0.61 at $22 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 45.9% adjusted (≈ 75.4% population)
CostsRaw $22.30 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.00 = $96.29Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $160.67 · PSA 9 $51.85 · PSA 8 $23.78 · ≤7 $11.82PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.9x