PSA 10$36.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$29.95PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8-PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$73.72$18.05 net sale vs $91.77 cost
EV rangeEV range: -84% / -80% / -76% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $17.94PSA 10 rate 23.3–34.3% (80% interval on 31 / 109); comps ±16.0% (comp quality 68). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 17% / 9 56% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 28.4% → adjusted 17.1% (SV, ×0.60 at $18 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $17.94 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.84 = $91.77Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $25.50 · PSA 9 $20.30 · PSA 8 $8.46 · ≤7 $8.46PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium1.2x