PSA 10$54.56PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$18.22PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$14.84PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$67.99$18.21 net sale vs $86.20 cost
EV rangeEV range: -80% / -79% / -77% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.57PSA 10 rate 46.1–48.5% (80% interval on 1340 / 2831); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 28% / 9 49% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 47.3% → adjusted 28.4% (SV, ×0.60 at $13 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $12.57 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.64 = $86.20Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $41.42 · PSA 9 $10.24 · PSA 8 $7.34 · ≤7 $4.31PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.0x