PSA 10$84.25PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$35.87PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$73.97$34.86 net sale vs $108.83 cost
EV rangeEV range: -74% / -68% / -62% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $34.40PSA 10 rate 37.8–40.7% (80% interval on 750 / 1910); comps ±18.0% (comp quality 64). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 25% / 9 51% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 39.3% → adjusted 25.2% (SV, ×0.64 at $34 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $34.40 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.44 = $108.83Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $66.91 · PSA 9 $25.39 · PSA 8 $21.17 · ≤7 $21.17PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.3x